China's Rich Having Larger FamiliesMy comments on this news:As though confirmation of the fertility opportunity hypothesis were needed, suddenly-richer people in China are ignoring one-child family size limits mandated by the government. This is no surprise. China's economy has been on a growth trajectory averaging approximately 10 percent annually for the past decade, and many families have become middle class or better.
The fertility opportunity hypothesis suggests that couples who perceive expanding opportunity will accept, even welcome, numerous children. On the contrary, those who perceive scarcity or shrinking opportunity tend to limit family size.
Many case histories support this hypothesis [see Abernethy, Population Politics, Transaction Publishers [1993] 2000] and it was tested prospectively with a prediction that, as a consequence of the economic meltdown beginning in the summer of 1997, fertility would decline in the nine countries collectively known as the Asian Tigers. After two years, in fact, the fertility rate had declined significantly in 8 of 9 countries. [See Abernethy and Penaloza. Fertility Decline in Former Asian Tigers. Population and Environment].
Perception that opportunity is declining explains small family size among white and black native-born Americans. For approximately 80 percent, real income has been stagnant since the late 1970s. Fertility is well above replacement level only among immigrants - especially Mexicans and Central Americans - who typically find better opportunity and more social services available to them in the United States than in country of origin..
V.
|