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Last Updated on:
November 16, 2016

Israeli Rationale, Current Gaza Conflict
November 19, 2012


Israel wants the entire Holy Land and Gaza’s gas.
Sun, 18 Nov 2012 
Israel Military Implements Gaza War, Phase1 of Iran Nuclear
Nadeem Walayat 
It is no news that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has  been preparing the world for an attack against Iran all year, as  illustrated by the PM's September visit and speech at the UN.
(Netanyahu Warns of Attack on Iran
>). In a continuation of  the propaganda war, Channel 4 recently aired a fly on the wall  documentary into the suggested thought processes that the Israeli  Government, Military and Intelligence agencies were going through during  September 2012 as they war gamed the consequences of a unilateral attack  against Iran's air defence, missile and nuclear infrastructure, and how
the aftermath could play out in terms of world reaction and Iranian  military response.

Whilst the programme reeked of propaganda for the camera's towards justification for an attack against Iran, as those involved were clearly  attempting to talk the wider world into believing that the consequences  of an attack against Iran would be contained i.e. that Iranian  retaliation would be limited due to fears of drawing the US into the  conflict.

However, one of the consequences that the Israeli war gamers could not  mask in the aftermath of an attack on Iran would be the thousands of  rockets and longer range missile attacks from Iranian proxies in Gaza  and Lebanon who's numbers were more than capable of overcoming Israel's  missile defence shield that could perhaps deal with up to 200 rockets  per day rather than the prospects for peak attacks of probably over 2000  per day that would be in addition to any remaining Iranian longer range  missiles that Israel hoped to degrade during the initial air war.

Therefore clearly at the forefront of the Israeli military planning for  an attack against Iran has been towards engineering an scenario that  would allow Israel to degrade the longer range rockets that could be  fired out of both Gaza and Lebanon that would allow Israel's missile  defences to be better able to deal with he aftermath of an air war  against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure as it would take  significant military capability for Iran to retaliate off the military  map, as well as improving the probability of earlier US Military  intervention in an air war against Iran, by allowing a scenario to  unfold that would draw the US into the region under guise of being at  the defence of Israel.

*Phase 1 - Invade Gaza and Degrade Rockets Capability - November 2012*

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing an election in January
2013 had clearly put the Gaza attack plans on low gear until after the  US Presidential election, following which Israel virtually immediately  embarked upon a series of military provocations including sending tanks  into Gaza on November 8th that killed a Palestinian child, then 2 days  later fired a number of shells into Gaza killing a 4 civilians and  wounding 38 others. The trigger for Gaza retaliation was the targeted  assassinations of Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari who was killed  by a missile that was followed by an extensive bombing campaign to  inflame Hamas into retaliating with longer range rockets.

The Israeli Government is using Hamas retaliation as political cover for  the justification for an all out air and ground assault against Gaza  with the primary objective for seeking out and destroying much of  Hamas's longer range rocket stock piles. Hamas by firing a dozen or so  rockets at Tel-Aviv is following Israeli war planners strategy as it  plays well to Israeli and western audiences that an assault upon Gaza is  justified.

The Gaza War Phase 1 invasion now appears imminent, as already upwards  of 100,000 Israeli troops have started to mass on Gaza's border as the  bombardment continues to pave it's way for an invasion of Gaza.

The estimated consequences of Phase 1, if in line with the last Gaza war  in the run up to the 2009 Israeli elections could see some 2000   Palestinian deaths against an estimated 30 Israeli, and likely to result  in a short lived invasion of less than 1 month as Israel would soon  require the troops for Phase2.

*Phase 2 - Invasion of Lebanon, Degrade Hezbollah - December 2012*

Following the destruction of Hamas's Gaza ability to retaliate following  an attack on Iran, and Syria being out of the picture, the Israeli war  machine will next eye Phase 2 for a similar programme of first  provocation, then invasion and destruction of Hezbollah military  infrastructure, which would include carving out a semi-temporary buffer  zone in South Lebanon so as to prevent small range rockets and mortars  from being fired into northern Israel.

Therefore Israel will towards the latter stages of the Gaza War (in a  matter of weeks), provoke attacks from Hezbollah by using similar  tactics of drone attack assassinations of the leadership of Hezbollah  with the main objective for Invasion and ongoing occupation of southern  Lebanon so as to diminish the capability for Iranian response via Hezbollah.

The estimated consequences of Phase 2, if in line with the last 2006  Lebanon war could see at least 1500 Lebanese deaths (mostly civilian)  and an estimated 150 Israeli deaths (mostly military), with the  occupation likely to continue until well after an attack against Iran is  underway.

*Phase 3 - Attack on Iranian Military and Nuclear Infrastructure -  January 2013*

It is highly likely that an attack against Iranian nuclear and military  infrastructure would follow at the peak of Israeli incursion into  southern Lebanon as that would have Hezbollah under maximum pressure,  which suggests that such an attack could take place some time during  January 2013, in the run up to the Israeli General Election.

Given that much of Iranian nuclear infrastructure is deep under ground  (under a mountain), limited Israeli ground forces may also be deployed,  or tactical nuclear missiles used to vaporise deep under ground  infrastructure.

*Iranian Response*

Iran will have also been under taking war gaming scenarios in which  respect witnessing Israel diminishing its capability to respond  following an Israeli air attack, Iran may conclude that an Israeli  attack were imminent and therefore may choose to strike first before  Israel attacks.

However the problem for an Iranian first strike following an Israeli  invasion of Lebanon is that it would draw the United States into the  unfolding war, in which respect Iran is effectively in a lose, lose  situation as the outcome would be the same as Iran's air, missile and  nuclear infrastructure would be greatly degraded. However, the advantage  of a first strike would be that it would unite an increasingly  rebellious population that are suffering as a consequence of  hyperinflation <
> behind  the Iranian leadership.

There is also an alternative scenario that could scupper Israel's attack  plans which is if Iran decided to comply with UN resolutions regarding
its nuclear programme, for which there is no real sign unless behind the
scenes negotiations are taking place, in fact Israel starting to
dismantle Iran's capability to deter an Israeli air attack will likely
result in an acceleration of the Iranian Nuclear programme as Iran
attempts to detonate a series of nuclear tests as a warning against an
attack, as we have seen countless times in the past such as at the
height of the India / Pakistan confrontation of a decade or so ago.

The bottom line is that the Israeli Government had put its military  plans on hold until after the US Presidential Election, following which  it has now implemented it's 3 stage plan the ultimate goal for which is  the destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, towards which it is  using the cover of actions in defence of attacks from Gaza that the  Israeli elite has engineered as part of a series of war gaming scenarios and plans put together many months ago. These plans have now been put  into action and the events in motion suggest that we will first see a  Gaza invasion, then of Lebanon, followed by a strike against Iranian  nuclear and military infrastructure, all within the next 3 months so as  to chime with the January Israeli general election that Prime Minister  Netanyahu aims to win.

In respect of the consequences for a region wide war, Israel has  miscalculated in their rush to implement plans, as they see the  country's security being underwritten by the United States therefore  have ignored the wider middle eastern, Russia, and China dimensions to a  conflict that they seem determined to instigate. For instance we could  see that whilst the US is preoccupied in another war in the middle east,  that China uses that as an excuse to seize the East China Sea Islands  that it disputes with Japan and thus change the whole strategic balance  of East Asia / Pacific that the US has dominated since the end of World  War 2.

*Current Probabilities*

  * The probability of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza - 90%.
  * An invasion of Lebanon - 70%.
  * An conventional attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure before the end of January 2013 - 65%.
  * Use of tactical nuclear weapons on Iran's deep under ground nuclear infrastructure - 40%.
  * Probability that Iran will do a deal with the US / UN and disarm  before being attacked - 20%.

"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac." - George Orwell

Source & Comments:

By Nadeem Walayat

*Disclaimer: *The above is a matter of opinion provided for general
information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.
Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising
methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for
any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis.
Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before
engaging in any trading activities.

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