Subject: [energyresources] Another Abernethy Research Contribution
Virginia:
I was reading an account of the sequence of insights reported by my favorite energy analyst Richard Duncan, while he was in Saudi Arabia back in 1991. He commented that even that long ago you reached beyond the Hubbert Peak discussions of that period and saw the utility of energy/capita thinking. Remarkable insight and further evidence of your contribution to the field in your role as editor of Population and Environment.
Impressive! Excerpts below.
Stuart R. Johnson, Geologist and President, Self-Instructional Enterprises, Inc.---------------
Notes By Richard Duncan http://www.energybulletin.net/138.html The first person to publish data on world energy production per capita was physicist Robert H. Romer in 1985. His data had gaps of 5 years and it did not include 1979. Scientist (and later Science Advisor to President Clinton) John Gibbons in 1989 published a curve of world energy production per capita from 1950 to 1985. But he erred by showing the peak in 1973. In 1991 Professor John Holdren published the world E/P data from 1850 to 1990 (8 data points with gaps of 20 years). But he did not include 1979. None of these scientists appears to have discovered the 1979 peak of world energy production per capita or discussed its significance. That brings us to September, 1991 when (while working in Saudi Arabia) I received a letter from Professor Virginia Abernethy (then editor of Population and Environment) that I submit a paper on (what else?) energy and population. With remarkable foresight she sent along the eight raw data points from Holdren's paper. I quickly set to work.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes on Duncan's identification of the peak of per capita world energy production:
Dr. Richard Duncan's achievements have continued, including extensive publication on his theory of per capita peak energy production and the life cycle of human civilization [the Olduvai Theory]. For example, with geologist and author of Geopolitics Walter Youngquist:
Duncan, Richard C. and Youngquist, Walter. Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production. Natural Resources Research 8 (3), 219-232 , 1999.
First publication of the Olduvai Theory:
Duncan, Richard C. The Life Expectancy of Industrial Civilization: The Decline to Global Equilibrium. Population and Environment 14 (4), 325-358, 1993.
|
